Gold is still the most popular investment in Pakistan, especially since inflation, economic difficulties, and global uncertainties make individuals want to invest in safe-haven assets like Gold. Keeping in view the recent trends in Gold prices, investors are asking this big question. What will be the Gold market in 2026?.
This article will provide you the detailed gold price outlook 2025 to analyze the statistics from the last five years (2021–2025), talks about local and global factors, and gives an agenda for what to do in 2025 and 2026. The very purpose of this article is to help readers to take informed and confident investment decisions in 2026.
Gold Price outlook 2025 – Yearly Comparison (2021–2025)
| Year | Per Tola(24k) Price In Pkr | % Change Toy |
| Dec 2021 | 126,000 | — |
| Dec 2022 | 185,200 | 47% |
| Dec 2023 | 219,500 | 19% |
| Dec 2024 | 282,300 | 29% |
| Nov 2025(November 20, 2025) | 439,000 | 56% |
Note: Dec-2021 is a baseline year.
The data shows a strong upward trend in gold prices in Pakistan over the past five-year period from December 2021 to November 2025. In December 2021, the price of 24K gold per tola stood at PKR 126,000. This increased significantly to PKR 185,200 in December 2022, marking a 47% jump, In December 2023, gold reached PKR 219,500, showing a 19% increase, reflecting moderate but steady market growth. By December 2024, the price climbed further to PKR 282,300, a 29% rise, as inflation and economic uncertainty continued to drive investor demand toward gold as a safe asset.
The most dramatic surge occurred on November 13, 2025, when gold prices skyrocketed to PKR 449,000(Highest) per tola, posting a massive 56% year-on-year increase. This steep rise highlights intensified currency pressure, high global bullion rates, and heightened local investment activity.
Five-Year Increase (2021–2025)
Over the five-year period, gold prices in Pakistan have shown exceptional growth, reflecting both global market trends and domestic economic pressures.
- Absolute Increase: Gold has surged by PKR 313,000 per tola, rising from PKR 126,000 in 2021 to PKR 439,000 in November 20, 2025.
- Percentage Increase: This represents a massive 248% overall increase.
- Key Insight: Gold in Pakistan has almost tripled within just five years, making it one of the strongest-performing assets in the country.
This extraordinary growth underscores gold’s value as a reliable hedge, especially during periods of inflation, currency depreciation, and financial uncertainty.
Key Factors Driving Market Conditions
Several forces shaped Pakistan’s gold market in 2025:
- Weak Rupee: Currency depreciation magnifies global price changes. A weakening PKR often means steep gold price hikes for Pakistani buyers.
- Political and Economic Instability: Safe-haven buying increased as investors moved away from riskier assets.
- High Inflation: With inflation hovering above 20%, gold remained the preferred store of value.
- Import Duties and Regulations: Policy changes occasionally disrupted supply and caused temporary price premiums.
International Comparison
Pakistan’s gold consistently traded at a premium as compare to international rates due to duties, margins, and currency impacts. In 2025, premiums averaged 8–12% over global prices.
Gold Price in International Market (2021–2025) – Yearly Comparison.
| Year | Per Ounce Price In USD | % Change Toy |
| Dec 2021 | $ 1830 | — |
| Dec 2022 | $ 1825 | -0.3% |
| Dec 2023 | $ 2063 | 13% |
| Dec 2024 | $ 2607 | 26% |
| Nov 2025(November 20, 2025) | $ 4070 | 56% |
Note: Dec-2021 is a baseline year.
In the international market, gold prices increased more slowly compared to Pakistan. From 2021 to 2025, the percentage change in global gold prices was 122%, whereas in Pakistan it rose by 248%, which is almost double. The average yearly return on gold investment in Pakistan is approximately 30%, compared to 17% in the international market. This clearly shows that the Pakistani gold market has been more lucrative in terms of average annual returns.
Changing Consumption Patterns
- Urban buyers shifted toward investment products like digital gold and savings accounts.
- Rural buyers remained price-sensitive, delaying purchases during spikes.
- Second-hand gold markets grew sharply due to recycling and resale.
Economic Indicators Shaping Gold Prices in 2026
Inflation and Currency Devaluation
Persistent inflation and rupee depreciation remain decisive drivers of gold prices. With the PKR falling from 100 to over 280 per USD in the past decade, gold has naturally become costlier as its dollar value is converted into local currency.
When inflation rises, gold becomes an attractive hedge, pushing demand even higher.
Interest Rate Policies
Even with high policy rates (15–17%), Pakistan’s real interest rates are often negative due to inflation. This makes gold comparatively more attractive than cash deposits.
GDP Growth and Purchasing Power
GDP growth is expected to stay modest at 3–4% in 2026. While slow growth reduces purchasing power for many households, it simultaneously increases uncertainty—historically a catalyst for higher gold demand.
Global Factors Influencing Gold Prices
U.S. Federal Reserve Policy and Dollar Strength
If the Fed cuts rates in 2026, the dollar may weaken—usually bullish for gold. Conversely, rate hikes strengthen the dollar and reduce gold’s appeal worldwide.
Geopolitical Tensions
Global conflict zones—Middle East instability, Russia-Ukraine tensions, China-Taiwan concerns—keep gold demand elevated. In uncertain times, investors shift toward safe-haven assets, and Pakistan reacts strongly to such global cues.
Central Bank Buying Trends
Central banks worldwide are buying gold at near-record levels to diversify reserves away from the dollar. This provides a structural long-term support for gold prices.
Recession Risks
Slowing growth in major economies, supply chain disruptions, and energy market pressures all signal elevated recession risks—another bullish driver for gold.
Expert Price Forecasts for Gold in Pakistan (2026)
Conservative Forecasts
Most local analysts and bullion market experts expect gold prices in the end 2026 would likely be between PKR 480,000–550,000 per tola. These projections assume:
- Moderate inflation
- Stable rupee
- No major geopolitical shocks
- Already highest growth since 2025
- Strong governmental control
Optimistic Forecasts
Other group of Bullish analysts predict gold prices in the end of year 2026 may likely hit high PKR 510,000–600,000 per tola in case of:
- Sharp rupee depreciation
- Strong safe-haven demand
- Heightened geopolitical tensions
- Internal security concerns
- Judicial crisis after 27th amendments
- Peak weeding season (Cultural factor)
Investment Strategies for 2026
Best Times to Buy
After going through the Gold Price Outlook 2025 and reviewing the figures, it’s clear that gold has delivered an average return of nearly 30% over the past five years. This makes gold a strong investment option right now. Gold is known for offering solid long-term returns, but it requires investor patience. Stay calm and strong during sudden ups and downs, because the real benefit comes with consistency and long-term holding.
Disclaimer: This article is published by WealthyAdvisor.com for informational purposes only. All views expressed are based on historical data and do not constitute personal financial advice. We do not endorse or recommend any specific vendor, product, or service. WealthyAdvisor.com shall not be held liable for any financial loss, damages, or consequences arising from the use of the information provided.